China as India’s Principal Strategic Contradiction

Theme : International Relations

Paper:GS - 2

TABLE OF CONTENT

1. Context
2. What is Principal Contradiction?
3. China as the Principal Contradiction
4. Elements of China Test
5. India-Russia Relations applying China Test
6. Consequences If India choose US over Indo-Russia Ties
7. Suggestions from China Test

Context : China is contemporary India’s principal strategic contradiction. Every other challenge, be it Pakistan, internal insurgencies, and difficulties in relations with its neighbors, fall in the category of secondary contradictions.

What is Principal Contradiction?

• The concept of a principal contradiction is one that poses the most intense challenge to an individual/organization, and has the power to shape its future choices and consequent outcomes, a useful method of optimizing and prioritizing strategic decision-making.

China as the Principal Contradiction : 

• Straightforward question over the decisions taken by the policymakers: Major decisions in New Delhi’s strategic decision matrix should pass the China test, which amounts to asking and answering a rather straightforward question: “does x or y decision/development/relationship help deal with the China challenge, or not?”
• China test a tool for policy making: A perspicacious ‘China test’ can help prioritize strategic decision making in the longer run, at least as an analytical tool with potential policy utility

Elements of China Test : 

There are 3 Distinct Elements : 

• Assessment of Indian decisions: an assessment of how a certain Indian decision or a specific regional development squares with Chinese regional strategy or interests.
• Assessment if the decisions need Modifications: An assessment of whether India’s decision or a certain regional development would require India to make modifications at the level of secondary contradictions.
• Assessment if it requires a major policy change: An assessment of whether this would require any major policy changes internally. Let me highlight the utility of the ‘China test’ using a few examples.

India-Russia Relations applying China Test : 

• Relations in the wake of Ukraine war: India-Russia relations in the wake of the Ukraine war are among the most debated bilateral relationships in the world today.
• Question arises by applying the China test: India-Russia relations in the face of western pressure on India to decouple from Moscow. “Does continuing its relationship with Moscow help New Delhi better deal with the China challenge?”
• What the U.S. and its allies offer India to condemn Russia: The U.S. and its allies would like India to stop engaging with Moscow and condemn its aggression against Ukraine which India has refused to do so far.
• The challenge of growing proximity between Moscow and Beijing: There is also the growing proximity between Moscow and Beijing which reduces the robustness of India-Russia relations.

Consequences If India choose US over Indo-Russia Ties : 

• Sino-Russian cooperation is likely to strengthen: In the absence of an India-Russia relationship, the extent of Sino-Russian cooperation is likely to strengthen, and India will be cut out of the continental space to its north and west.
• China may replace India as a Natural beneficiary of energy at discounted price and thereby support to Pakistan: New Delhi continues to get discounted energy, cheaper defense equipment If India decides to break away from Russia, many of these could come to a grinding halt, and the natural beneficiary of such an eventuality will, undoubtedly, be China. This could also push Moscow towards Pakistan with or without some nudging from Beijing.
• India a trusted partner for Russia: It is also important to note that Moscow is not keen to have China dominate the strategic space around it and has been keen to balance the growing influence of China in Central Asia with partners such as New Delhi. New Delhi’s turn away from Moscow will ensure that China gets a free hand in Central Asia too. In one sense, therefore, the China piece best explains the enigma called India-Russia relations.

Suggestions from China Test : 

• Break away from Russia may likely play in Chinese strategy for Boxing India: If indeed New Delhi was to completely break away from Russia (as India’s U.S. and western partners have asked India to), Such a decision is most likely to play into China’s hands. India-Russia relations are on the wane, there is a strong rationale for New Delhi to continue its relationship with Moscow which is China.
• The China test requires India to pacify its relationship with Pakistan: The question to ask here is “does making (relative) peace with Pakistan help India better deal with China?”. For China, the best-case scenario is an India vigorously preoccupied with Pakistan which ensures that India is not focused on the growing threat from China, thereby providing Beijing with the opportunity to displace traditional Indian primacy in South Asia. So, for India, a course-correction on Pakistan, even if it is only post facto, is a strategically sensible one.

FAQs : 

1. What is Principal Contradiction ?

ANS. The concept of a principal contradiction is one that poses the most intense challenge to an individual/organization, and has the power to shape its future choices and consequent outcomes, a useful method of optimizing and prioritizing strategic decision-making.

2. What are the Elements of the China Test ?

ANS.

•  Assessment of Indian decisions: an assessment of how a certain Indian decision or a specific regional development squares with Chinese regional strategy or interests.
• Assessment if the decisions need Modifications: An assessment of whether India’s decision or a certain regional development would require India to make modifications at the level of secondary contradictions.
• Assessment if it requires a major policy change: An assessment of whether this would require any major policy changes internally. Let me highlight the utility of the ‘China test’ using a few examples.